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Tag Archives: statistics

Believe everything you hear? I hope not – for your sake.

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Posted by threeresolutionsguy in Character and Competence, Discipline

≈ Comments Off on Believe everything you hear? I hope not – for your sake.

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7 Habits, Abertillery, competence, domestic violence, fake news, integrity, media, objectivity, poverty, seven habits, statistics, stephen covey, time management

Today, I want to write about objectivity. Objectivity is a discipline, and one that is not easy to execute because we are all biased by our experiences, upbringing and value systems. What we see, we see through a lens that has been fogged to some degree, unless we occasionally choose to clean it in an effort to ensure that some clarity is possible. I raise this issue because what I see going on around the world is, it appears to me, the result of deliberate fogging of lenses by interest groups that have become so powerful because of social media that we risk going down a path that could so easily be avoided if we just asked better questions when ‘facts’ are trotted out for us to gullibly accept.

I heard a statistic the other day. The speaker (a socialist) was upset that 1 in 5 children lived below the poverty line. I thought, “Is that possible? That would require 8 houses in my street to be ‘in poverty’, and for every street that had no poverty there would have to be streets with massively more than one in five.

Of course, if you conclude that children don’t earn any money, and that relative poverty is defined as poverty created when people earn less than 50% of the average wage, then that statement could be true – but the kids weren’t necessarily poor or living in a poor household.

Another one – According to the Crime Survey for England and Wales year ending March 2020, an estimated 5.5% of adults aged 16 to 74 years (2.3 million) experienced domestic abuse in the last year. Extrapolated, that means that domestic violence takes place in two houses in my street, or more in other streets. Or is it more likely that the same victims are being abused by the same perpetrators and this isn’t reflected in that figure? A third – and a remarkably consistent one – is that 250,000 people go missing from home annually. When I was a cop, the same girl went missing from a children’s home every day – are those separately counted, or is each a separately counted incident?

Of course, I don’t know. I do know that figures can be warped; as I say, I was a copper and crime figures – well, least said, soonest amended. The COVID stats are hilariously warped – crushed by rocks but died within 28 days of a positive covid test? Boom, another covid death. And more justification for lockdowns and other restrictions on freedom. (The Sue Grey Report came out yesterday. Ironic.)

So the discipline I invite people to consider is this: to question what you are told, and not blindly accept everything you hear. I say this because I see the anger, ire, combativeness and hatred created by facts that simply aren’t yet verified.

This week, a child reported he’d been racially abused, chased, and lost a finger having climbed a fence to escape. I don’t want that to be true – the thought of kids that age being racist in 2022 is sad. If it is true, let punishment follow. But years of child abuse input (and some personal experiences) state that a child should not be interviewed by untrained staff, nor asked repeatedly what happened, because of the risk of accidental embellishment if they feel they’re being challenged.

Yet the press, celebdom and interest groups have all had their bandwagon launched, and statements have been demanded and occasionally delivered from those in authority, all of whom are angry and incensed – before any police investigation has even started. And all of them are supposed to be intellectual and objective. Their bandwagon behaviour suggests otherwise. It means either they’re not astute enough to wait for the facts to be fully provided (bad) or it suits their agenda to spout (really bad and malevolent).

So my plea today is to wait. Use the gap between stimulus and response to decide if you have enough data to believe what is being put to you.

Because that’s exactly what you’d hope would happen if YOU were the subject of conjecture, wouldn’t you?

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Lies, damned lies and statistics. What would YOU do about them?

04 Wednesday Feb 2015

Posted by threeresolutionsguy in General

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

"stephen Covey", lies, NCIS, police, statistics, The Bill, truth

Three days ago I wrote about truth. One of the lessons I have learned over many years of the study of Dr Covey’s works has been this – what we are being told is rarely, ever, the wholly accurate truth. That use of the gap between stimulus and response which contains self-awareness, creative imagination, independent will and conscience has awakened me to how much people’s bias or motives intrude upon communication and debate.

This week the press reported that there had been an upsurge in complaints against the (British) police, up to 35,000 recorded in the latest recorded year. One paper said that was evidence of a police force that did not respect the people. Many complaints were for ‘incivility’, some for ‘neglect of duty’.

Of course some complaints are justified. Some are genuine misunderstandings about what was and was not possible (based on watching NCIS and The Bill). Occasionally it is a procedural complaint that a process failed.

But the media was focused on the numbers, but it notably left some numbers unreported, or unrecorded. And they did no analysis of their own.

For example – 35,000 complaints among 140,000 officers meant only one in four officers was ever complained about, and complained about only once in that year. In hundreds and hundreds of interactions, in 200 days of working. Takes the tint off a bit.

Next, no measure was provided about how many of those complaints were be people later charged, or convicted in connection with the incident giving rise to the complaint. I’d ask this because (and this may surprise you) some criminals/people are dishonest.

Of course, you can’t measure complaints by those who just won’t listen – people who lose things insisting on a ‘crime report’; people who instigate fights complaining that they were assaulted; people who ‘think’ they know the law – but patently don’t.

That reminds me about one person who didn’t complain, but he arguably could have. I was parked blocking a road with my marked police car, blue lights flashing. A man drove up.

“Can I drive through, officer?”

“Only if one of us is a ghost, sir,” I replied. Sarcasm. Not allowed any more.

Anyway, this particular newspaper report hit close to home, it’s something I know a lot about. I was once ‘top of the force’ for complaints (preen, preen) and I know how much some of them are instigated by defence lawyers as a bargaining chip.

What is the situation like in your own sector – are people lying – sorry, being disingenuous about you and your colleagues?

If so, could you apply the Third Resolution and do something about it?

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